This work analyses the factors that make an event critical and affect political strategies to face ministerial turnover in Brazil and Chile. Microdata connected with cabinets composition and individual attributes of ministers as well as macro variables such as macroeconomic performance, corruption scandals and social protests are analysed from Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1995-1999 and 1999-2003) to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (2003-2007 and 2007-2011) and from Patricio Aylwin (1990-1994) to Sebastián Piñera (2010-2014) in Brazil and Chile, respectively. Nonparametric techniques, specifically Kaplan-Meier estimations and Cox regressions, are used. Furthermore, Weibull parametric hazard models to evaluate the time transaction rate are fitted, and an own-design algorithm to measure the specific exposure to events is applied.
Mr. Bastián González-Bustamante